PART 1: Approaching God in the context of climate change

1.1 The Christian doctrine of creation

The foundation of the Christian doctrine of creation, and therefore the starting point for theological reflection on the issue of climate change, is the great affirmation of Genesis 1:31: ‘God saw everything that he had made, and indeed, it was very good.’ By this statement we understand the fundamental biblical affirmation that the universe, our solar system and all life on earth are entirely dependent on God for their origin and continuing existence, and that all these things are declared good by their creator. The opening of John’s gospel identifies this creative work with the Word of God, incarnate in Jesus of Nazareth, showing that the reconciliation of all things to God in the life, death and resurrection of Jesus cannot be separated from God’s act of creation (Colossians 1:15–20; Ephesians 1:9–10). Creative and redemptive work also belongs to the work of the Spirit, recognised by Christian interpreters as sweeping over the face of the waters in the beginning (Genesis 1:2) and inspiring a groaning creation as it awaits redemption (Romans 8). God, Creator and Redeemer, Father, Son and Spirit(1) is the transcendent and immanent source, sustenance and salvation of all creation.(2)

The Church has always celebrated the beauty of creation in praise and thanksgiving as a sign of God’s gracious goodness, just as Jesus appreciated the splendour of the lilies of the field in the Sermon on the Mount (Matthew 6:28–29). The Psalms also delight in God’s created order and call on all parts of creation to rejoice in God’s goodness to them (Psalms 97, 98, 100, 148). Christian interpreters have followed Scripture in seeing God's good purposes manifested in creation. The whole of creation shouts out in gladness at God’s presence: the sea roars, the floods clap their hands and the hills sing together for joy (Psalm 98:7–9).

1.2 The scientific understanding of climate change

In this theological context, we approach the current scientific understandings of recent and future changes in the earth’s climate. In the second half of the twentieth century it was recognised that ‘global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N20) have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years’(3). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is tasked with drawing together observations and climate modelling studies, together with assessing potential impacts of future climate change resulting from human activity. Its Sixth Assessment Report published in 2021 concluded that ‘it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land’(4) and that ‘widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.’(5) In predicting future climatic changes, the IPCC set out several scenarios for levels of greenhouse gases through the twenty-first century, from high emissions business as usual, to reducing to net zero by 2050. These lead to estimated warming by 2100 of 4°C or more, to a more limited 1.5°C. The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement agreed a goal to keep global surface temperature well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.(6)

Even at 1.5°C of global warming ‘there will be an increasing occurrence of some extreme events unprecedented in the observational record; these extremes become larger for higher levels of global warming: ‘every additional 0.5°C of global warming causes clearly discernible increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes, including heatwaves (very likely), and heavy precipitation (high confidence), as well as agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions (high confidence).’(7) Even with the lowest predicted levels of global warming, the ‘Arctic is likely to be practically sea ice free in September at least once before 2050… with more frequent occurrences for higher warming levels.’(8) ‘The proportion of intense tropical cyclones (categories 4–5) and peak wind speeds of the most intense tropical cyclones are projected to increase at the global scale with increasing global warming (high confidence).’(9) Sea level rises of between 0.5m and 2m are expected by 2100 affecting low lying coast land and river estuaries as well as low lying islands. Already this is impacting upon communities across the Pacific. Further gradual sea level rise of 7m might be expected over the coming 2000 years.(10)

All of these changes are having significant impacts upon all human populations and the wider ecosystem of the earth. In 2006 the Stern Review noted that ‘the poorest developing countries would be hit earliest and hardest by climate change, even though they have contributed little to causing the problem’.(11) In Africa, for example, increased temperature, weather variability and extreme weather events have already impacted agricultural production, with significantly reduced cereal yields in North and East Africa.(12) At warming of around 3°C virtually all of the present maize, millet and sorghum cropping areas will become unviable for present crop varieties, and rates of undernourishment in Sub-Saharan African population are projected to increase 25–90% if temperatures rise by 1.5°C by 2050.(13) Progress toward achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals is thus being impeded. Without mitigation, it is estimated that up to 216 million people could be displaced as a result of climate impacts by 2050(14). For global warming as low as 1.5°C, it is estimated that 30% of species face an increased risk of extinction, while for warming of 3.5°C, 40–70% of species may become extinct.(15)

While there was some legitimate debate during the early stages of the development of scientific models of climate change regarding their accuracy, there is now an overwhelming scientific consensus that the analysis provided in the IPCC reports are robust and reliable.(16) A small minority of scientists and some parts of the media remain sceptical, but the vast majority of experts are persuaded that climate change is taking place and that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are playing a significant part in causing the changes. Even in the most optimistic scenario identified in the Sixth IPCC report where there is international action to bring rapid and significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the associated rise in global temperatures of 1.5°C by the end of the twenty-first century will make many areas of human population uninhabitable and cause the extinction of many plant and animal species. While scientific views of climate change will continue to be refined, the conclusions of the current IPCC report are sufficiently robust to suggest that it has been clear for some time that it is morally irresponsible to fail to act on this analysis of our current situation.